NFL Week 12 Picks: ‘D’ Rules Jets vs. Bears, Titans Beat Bengals

Thanksgiving is surely creeping up on us, right? The same can be said for the long run of the NFL season, as you’ll see plenty of “who’s in the playoffs” charts over the next month-plus. There will be no goodbyes this week, with 16 games scheduled in total. Only one of the non-Thanksgiving games features two teams with winning records.

Last week the outsiders went 7-6-1 against the spread (ATS) and are now 88-71-5.

My strongest ATS picks are Tampa Bay, Miami, and Seattle. Stay away from Denver Carolina and Baltimore-Jacksonville.

13:00 Games

CHICAGO (3-8) LT-JETS (6-4)

TELEVISION: Fox

jet at 6; O/A: 38.5

The Jets had three points last week and two yards on offense in the second half, so you should be playing them this week, right? To steal a line from Zach Wilson: “No. No.” Even if Wilson hadn’t been replaced by Mike White, I would have chosen the Jets. It’s about the Jets’ elite defense that caught the Bears at just the right time as electric quarterback Justin Fields got injured and might not play. There’s a game ahead in Minnesota and Buffalo and the Jets know they can’t afford to lose this game.How bad is this Bears defense?Chicago has scored 29, 32, 30 and 24 points in the last four weeks…and lost all four games.Jets have not lost to a team unnamed “New England” since 25 September.

Choice: Jets

GAME OF THE WEEK

CINCINNATI (6-4) TO TENNESSEE (7-3)

Cincinnati by 2.5; O/A: 43.5

In the divisional round of the playoffs last season, Cincinnati beat Tennessee with the top seed, 19-16, despite Joe Burrow being fired nine times. This should be another close fight between the two AFC rivals. I’m leaning towards Tennessee because coach Mike Vrabel has proven time and time again that he excels as an underdog. The Titans aren’t flashy, but they do the job with a big dose of Derrick Henry and solid defense. After a 0-2 start, the Titans won seven of eight with the only overtime loss in Kansas City in which they had to play their backup quarterback. They are also on ATS 8-0.

Choice: Tennessee

HOUSTON (1-8-1) TO MIAMI (7-3)

Miami by 14; O/A: 46.5

Double-digit favorites – 3-9 ATS. Don’t let that stop you from supporting the Dolphins, who have amassed 31, 35 and 39 points in their last three wins before the last week. This final score should be reminiscent of Miami’s last home game (39-17 over the Browns in Week 10). When Tua Tagovailoa starts and ends this year, Miami is 7-0 (6-1 ATS).

Choice: Miami

BALTIMORE (7-3) IN JACKSONVILLE (3-7)

Baltimore at 4; O/A: 43.5

I can’t understand any of these teams, but if you look at their work, it’s not your typical 7-3 vs 3-7 matchup. Every loss for the Jaguars is in the single digits, and if a game or two runs its course, it could easily be 5-5. Give me points with the home team goodbye.

Choice: Jacksonville

DENVER (3-7) IN CAROLINA (3-8)

Denver at 2.5; O/A: 36.5

Sam Darnold starts as the Panthers. Denver is 6-1 all-time against Carolina, including a Super Bowl 50 win. These results have nothing to do with this game, but considering this matchup is a candidate for the 2022 “Game I Least Want to Pick” award, that’s all i got.

Choice: Denver

CASTLE OF THE WEEK

TAMPA BAY (5-5) AT CLEVELAND (3-7)

Tampa Bay at 3.5; O/A: 42.5

Part of the weekly NFL game selection is realizing you got the team wrong. I thought the Bucks were done, but then they got together to beat the Rams and then played their best game of the year by beating the Seahawks. Tom Brady is 15-5 after a farewell week in the regular season and I expect the Bucks to build on Germany’s 30 or more points win over the Browns defense in five games.

Choice: Tampa Bay

ATLANTA (5-6) IN WASHINGTON (6-5)

Washington on 4; O/A: 40.5

It’s a solid matchup for Washington, who rank sixth in the NFL in stoppages (103.1 yards per game). Atlanta has the third-best offense (159.4) but won’t be able to take the hits like they usually do. The Commanders have won five out of six (5-0-1 ATS in that time) and should keep up with the ultra-competitive NFC East.

Choice: Washington

16:00 Games

LA RAMS (3-7) TO KANSAS CITY (8-2)

TELEVISION: Fox

Kansas City at 15.5; O/A: 42.5

The last time the two teams met, they played arguably the greatest regular season game in NFL history, defeating the Rams over the MNF 54–51. Both franchises have since won the Super Bowl. Now there is only one contender. Kansas City (4-6 ATS) doesn’t cover as much as it wins, but it should be one-sided. No Matthew Stafford. Cooper Kupp is gone. There is no way to stay that close. Los Angeles will likely need to play three games to reach 54 points again.

Choice: Kansas City

LA CHARGERS (5-5) IN ARIZONA (4-7)

TELEVISION: CBS

Los Angeles at 3; O/A: 48.5

After consecutive losses (and covers) against San Francisco and Kansas City in the SNF, the Chargers have faced a battered and battered Cardinals team that is 1-9 in the last 10 home games since last season. . However, be careful because Los Angeles is always involved in closed games and Arizona says goodbye next week.

Choice: Los Angeles Chargers

NEW ORLEANS (4-7) TO SAN FRANCISCO (6-4)

San Francisco at 8.5; O/A: 42.5

The 49ers’ ceiling is so high and their lineup so talented that sometimes they feel like an auto-pick. But in the short week after the big win in Mexico City, there could be a bit of natural disappointment at the MNF.

Choice: Residents of New Orleans

LAS VEGAS (3-7) TO SEATTLE (6-4)

Seattle at 3.5; G/L: 47.5

The last time we saw Seattle, they played their second worst game of the year in a loss to Tampa Bay in Germany. The Seahawks have taken a break from the farewell and I expect them to be more like a team that excelled during the four-game streak. Last week, the Raiders finally won the game by one point after starting 0-6, but Seattle is the better team with the best coach at home. Sometimes it’s that simple.

Choice: Seattle

SUNDAY EVENING

GREEN BAY (4-7) TH PHILADELPHIA (9-1)

TELEVISION: NBK, 20:20

Philadelphia at 6.5; O/A: 46.5

Which Eagles team is going to appear? The one that started 8-0 or the one that needed a late touch drive last week to avoid a second loss in a row and blast out of Indianapolis with a one-point win? That’s too many points to bet against a desperate Packers team fighting to stay in the wildcard picture.

Choice: Green Bay

MONDAY NIGHT

PITTSBURGH (3-7) TO INDIANAPOLIS (4-6-1)

TELEVISION: ESPN at 8:15 pm

Indianapolis at 2.5? O/A: 39.5

It could be a showy game as they are both desperate for a win. The Colts played well under interim coach Jeff Saturday, but in prime time, I’ll back Mike Tomlin’s experience.

Choice: Pittsburgh

STATE OF EMPLOYEES AND ELECTIONS

(best bets in bold; all selected against spread)

JOE MANNIELLO

Overall score 84-75-5, 4-7 best bets

Last week: 6-7-1

Detroit Giants Minnesota Jets

Tennessee Miami Jacksonville Denver

Tampa Bay Washington Kansas City Los Angeles Chargers

New Orleans Seattle Green Bay Pittsburgh

TOM ROCK

Overall score 73-86-5, best bets 5-5-1

Last week: 5-8-1

Buffalo Dallas Minnesota Jets

Cincinnati Miami Baltimore Carolina

Cleveland Atlanta Kansas City Los Angeles Chargers

San Francisco Seattle Philadelphia Pittsburgh

AL IANNAZZONE

Overall score 73-86-5, best bets 4-7

Last week: 4-9-1

Buffalo Dallas Minnesota Jets

Cincinnati Miami Baltimore Denver

Tampa Bay Washington Kansas City Los Angeles Chargers

San Francisco Seattle Philadelphia Pittsburgh

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